Advanced-Stage CKD Prevalence Quickly Rising Worldwide: Daily Dose

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Patient Care brings primary care clinicians a lot of medical news every day—it’s easy to miss an important study. The Daily Dose provides a concise summary of one of the website's leading stories you may not have seen.

Last week, we reported on findings from a study presented at the 2024 World Congress of Nephrology in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

The study

The IMPACT-CKD study is the first to forecast the multidimensional impact of chronic kidney disease (CKD) over a 10-year horizon, projecting trends in the US, Brazil, the UK, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, China, and Australia.

Researchers used patient level simulation to create one-million individual patients based on country population size. The model maps national and regional CKD treatment pathways, covering the full course of disease from primary care to end-of-life care.

The findings

CKD may affect up to 1 in 6 individuals across 8 major industrialized nations by 2032, ranging from 11.7% in Australia to 16.5% in the US. The rise in advanced stage disease (stages 3-5) will be the most dramatic over the 8-year period, at nearly 60% (59.3%).

The increased number of patients who will require advanced treatment services will increase dialysis requirements by more than 75% across the 8 countries. When the resources required for dialysis and transplant are combined, the cost is estimated at $186 billion. Costs associated with other renal replacement therapies will escalate by 77% or more and, in at least 7 of the countries, there will be a 23% rise in CKD-related emergency and inpatient hospital costs.

The impact on economic productivity will be significant as well, with combined patient and caregiver absenteeism responsible for a total of more than 3 billion missed workdays across the cohort, a loss equivalent to $37 billion US. Further, the model projects an environmental impact associated with CKD management that will make a carbon footprint equivalent to annual water usage of approximately 2.7 million households, power for ~149. 7 million lightbulbs, and CO2 emissions equivalent to that of ~17.3 million cars.

Authors' comment

"Study insights emphasize an urgent need for tailored, sustainable interventions, addressing clinical and economic consequences, and substantial and escalating environmental impact associated with end-stage CKD treatments. These consequences, including significant freshwater consumption, fossil fuel use, and carbon emissions, are integral considerations in developing holistic and effective strategies for CKD management, pushing global discourse towards an environmentally conscious and equitable approach to combatting the multifaceted challenges of CKD."

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