US Dementia Cases to Double by 2060: Daily Dose

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Patient Care brings primary care clinicians a lot of medical news every day—it’s easy to miss an important study. The Daily Dose provides a concise summary of one of the website's leading stories you may not have seen.

On January 15, 2025, we reported on a study published in Nature Medicine that aimed to predict estimates of lifetime dementia risk for both the overall US population and across a range of subgroups over the next 4 decades.

The study

Researchers culled 1987-2020 data from the ongoing Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Neurocognitive Study, a community-based, longitudinal, prospective cohort study that is tracking vascular health and cognitive function of approximately 16 000 adults as they age. Their analysis included 15 043 individuals (55.1% women; 26.9% Black) who were free of dementia at age 55 years and were followed over a median of 23 years. About one-third (30.8%) of participants had at least one APOE4 allele.

Investigators estimated the lifetime risk for dementia for each patient from age 55 to 95 years, with mortality treated as a competing event. They additionally applied lifetime risk estimates to US Census projections to evaluate the annual number of incident dementia cases from 2020 to 2060.

The findings

• The estimated number of new dementia cases per year was predicted to nearly double from roughly 514 000 in 2020 to approximately 1 million by 2060.

• Lifetime risk for dementia at age 55 years: 42% (95% CI 41–43).

• Projected rates were highest in Black adults, women, and APOE4 carriers, with lifetime risks ranging from 44% to 59% in these groups.

Authors' comments

"These results highlight the urgent need for policies that enhance healthy aging, with a focus on health equity."

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